The detail is attached – but from an overview perspective, you will see that in September, 2011 the state took in about $20 million more in general fund tax revenue than September of 2011 (or a ~9.5% increase).
For the fiscal year to date (July – Sept., 2011), general fund tax receipts are up about $33.5 million over the same period last year (or a ~5.6% increase).

Thank you for your communication and I wish the best for you and yours!

Russ Fulcher
State Senator chumly.com/attachment/4613144

Russ Fulcher
State Senator

I thought you would want to know that today DFM is releasing two important reports that include the following information:
· Updated statewide economic forecast
· Updated State revenue forecast
· July tax collections

The first report, the updated statewide economic forecast, captures Idaho’s Chief Economist Derek Santos’ most recent predictions for changes in the complex Idaho economy. Please note that while it is being released today, this report was completed in July – before the agreement on the federal debt ceiling was reached, before the S&P downgrade of the federal bond rating, and before this week’s roller-coaster ride in the stock market.

The report www.dfm.idaho.gov/Publications/EAB/Forecast/2011/J….html reaffirms the position that while there remains a great deal of uncertainty in the economy, Idaho continues to be a great place to do business. To quote from the report:
“The Idaho economic outlook turned unseasonably cool this summer, which is a slight change from spring’s warming trend. In the April 2011 Idaho Economic Forecast, the state’s economic outlook was actually revised upwards from the previous forecast as the national economic recovery seemed to be gaining traction. Unfortunately, the recovery appears to have hit a soft patch. As a result, expectations for Idaho’s economy have been revised down slightly in the July 2011 Idaho Economic Forecast.”

The report is a clear example of a”bad news/good news” situation. The bad news is that economic growth has slowed down. The good news is that the economy in Idaho is still growing – and not expected to decline.

The second report is the monthly Idaho General Fund Report. This report www.dfm.idaho.gov/Publications/EAB/GFRR/GFRR2012/G…1.pdf shows both the monthly tax collections for the month of July 2011 and also Mr. Santos’ updated State revenue forecast. As you are aware, the forecast for State revenues is based upon the economic forecast and like the first report, this one also reflects a cooling off in growth. Specifically, revenue growth which had been pegged at 6.9 percent has been reduced to 6.4 percent.

However, we again find ourselves in a”bad news/good news” situation. The bad news is the rate of growth has declined. The good news is that FY 2011 finished stronger than had been expected and as a result the starting point for FY 2012 (the current fiscal year) moved up resulting in an increase in forecasted revenue. It may seem counterintuitive, but a smaller percentage of a larger number results in more revenue than a larger percentage of a smaller number.

Simply put – the FY 2012 revenue has been increased from the prior forecast of $2,521,500,000 to $2,601,300,000 – an increase of $79.8 million.

A word of caution – before anyone makes plan to spend this”newly found” money, we must consider that DFM will provide an additional update prior to the start of the next legislative session. Governor Otter’s budget recommendation will be based upon this (the December/January update) and at this point in time it is unclear as to what those numbers will include. Just yesterday I participated in a meeting of the National Association of State Budget Officers where Bob Kutter, the Managing Director for US Public Finance for Moody’s Investors Service, reported that every day the probability of a new, deeper recession (or a”double-dip”) is growing.

Given the great fluctuation in the economy, it remains sound public policy to continue the careful and prudent approach that has governed Idaho budget setting for the last four years.